Weekend projections: Wonka and Anyone But You shine, Night Swim treading water

January 7, 2024

Anyone But You

Wonka will take its third bow at the top of the box office chart this weekend, with Warner Bros. projecting a $14.43-million weekend for the musical, taking it to $164.65 million at the domestic box office. It’ll also pass $300 million internationally this weekend for a global haul of $465.8 million. The other star this weekend is Anyone But You, which will increase its earnings by 9% compared to last weekend. It’ll remain in fifth place with $9.5 million this weekend and $43.7 million expected in total by the end of the day today. New release Night Swim is making less of a splash with an expected $12-million debut.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



Wonka is now on the brink of overtaking The Greatest Showman and becoming the best-performing live action Holiday musical, before inflation adjustment (see our full comparison chart here). Chicago holds the inflation-adjusted crown among movies released since 1997, with close to $300 million in today’s dollars. Wonka probably doesn’t have enough in the tank to reach that height, but it will cruise past $200 million.

Almost all films in the top ten are doing a shade better than our model’s prediction, with two doing substantially better: The Boys in the Boat and The Iron Claw, both of which are benefiting from lack of competition. I suspect they were also second or third on many people’s lists of must-see movies over the Holidays, and this weekend was a good catch-up opportunity. Ferrari also falls into that category.

Night Swim’s debut is a slight disappointment, particularly when compared to M3GAN’s $30.4 million this time last year, but it’s hardly a disaster. With a budget reported at $15 million, the new horror movie has a good shot at breaking even. Its reviews suggest it won’t have great legs, so that might be as much as Blumhouse and Universal can aspire to.

One final note for this weekend. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom and Trolls Band Together will both pass $100 million at the domestic box office (Trolls did so yesterday, Aquaman will do so today). That’s not cause for massive celebration in either case, but gives both films respectability. Trolls Band Together had the lower budget of the two—around $95 million—and has passed $200 million worldwide now. While less than the $342.8 million earned by the original Trolls, there’s still some life left in that franchise.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom closes out the DCEU with a respectable showing. It’ll pass The Flash on the daily comparison chart today, making it the second-best post-pandemic DCEU movie, behind Black Adam.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide
- Holiday-season musical comparisons

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Filed under: DC Extended Universe